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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 21) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2011.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better (26%), as compared to those expecting it to be worse (9%), in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010.
The prevalence of optimistic business expectations among respondents remains broadly unchanged in Q1 2011 when compared with the results of the previous survey round. The proportion of respondents with favourable business outlook for Q1 2011 (26%) is similar to that of 28% in Q4 2010.
Analysed by sector, respondents in almost all the surveyed sectors have favourable business outlook for Q1 2011 on balance. In particular, significantly more respondents in the retail and financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010. In the information and communications sector, however, the proportion of respondents with favourable business outlook is the same as that with unfavourable business outlook.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends." The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 7, 2010 to January 11, 2011.
Volume of Business/Output
Respondents in almost all the surveyed sectors expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010 on balance. In particular, significantly more respondents in the retail and financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect their employment to increase in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010 on balance. The financing and insurance; retail; and information and communications sectors have significantly more respondents expecting their employment to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease.
Selling Price/Service Charge
Respondents in almost all the surveyed sectors expect their selling price/service charge to go up in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010 on balance, and those in the accommodation and food services sector have significantly more favourable expectation in particular. On the other hand, slightly more respondents in the information and communications sector expect their charge for services rendered to go down, as against those expecting it to go up.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q1 2010 to Q1 2011.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q1 2011.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2011". The C&SD has recently conducted a review on the printing of statistical publications and has decided that the print version of the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey" will no longer be produced starting from this edition. Nevertheless, the publication is still available for downloading free of charge from the website of the C&SD at www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index_cd_B1110008_dt_detail.jsp .
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, January 21, 2011
Issued at HKT 16:31
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