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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (May 3).
The value of total retail sales in March 2007, provisionally estimated at $18.9 billion, increased by 5.0% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 3.5% in March 2007 over a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in February 2007, at $20.8 billion, increased by 28.6% over February 2006, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 25.2%. This came after a decrease of 1.5% in value or 4.9% in volume in January. It should be noted, however, that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year because of the effect of the timing of the Lunar New Year. For the first two months of 2007 combined, retail sales increased by 11.6% in value or 8.1% in volume from a year earlier.
Taking the first quarter of 2007 together, total retail sales increased by 9.4% in value or 6.6% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing March 2007 with March 2006, the volume of sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment increased the most, by 18.8%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (+9.1% in volume); commodities in department stores (+7.7%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+7.6%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+4.4%); fuels (+1.9%); and furniture and fixtures (+0.5%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods and of motor vehicles and parts decreased by 9.2% and 3.6% respectively in March 2007 compared with a year earlier, while the volume of sales of commodities in supermarkets and of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts also decreased, by 2.7% and 1.7% respectively. Meanwhile, the volume of sales of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco remained virtually unchanged.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2007 compared with the preceding quarter.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that the growth in the volume of retail sales moderated in March after several months of notable growth. Part of the moderation was due to the fall-off in sales of supermarkets, as well as in sales of motor vehicles which are volatile from month to month. Yet sales of clothing and footwear; electrical appliances and sales of department stores held up very well, a reflection of consumers' willingness to spend in tandem with the economic upturn. But the volatility in the stock market that began at end-February and extended into most of March; and also the slow-down in inbound tourism, had led to lower spending on luxurious items like jewellery and watches.
The spokesman added that yet for the first quarter as a whole, retail sales actually picked up further, as can be seen from the slightly faster year-on-year growth in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2006, and also from the continued growth on a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis. Looking forward, rising household income, improved job market and sustained low interest rates should continue to provide support to retail businesses.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for February 2007 and the provisional figures for March 2007, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for February 2007 and the provisional figures for March 2007, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the Website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$9.0 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Statistical Bookstore (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) and the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount, at 85% of their original prices.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258).
Ends/Thursday, May 3, 2007
Issued at HKT 16:15
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